Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.321439 0.375785 0.434886 0.503724 0.581485 0.666381 0.765854
2025-04-27 0.235165 0.302969 0.382619 0.482330 0.602995 0.743436 0.918332
2025-05-04 0.179051 0.253608 0.347923 0.474224 0.636951 0.837421 1.100653
2025-05-11 0.136051 0.212406 0.316497 0.465444 0.669249 0.934079 1.299192
2025-05-18 0.096505 0.167623 0.272696 0.433862 0.668364 0.989769 1.454587
2025-05-25 0.066488 0.129637 0.231260 0.398721 0.657937 1.032369 1.599500
2025-06-01 0.048664 0.106508 0.207716 0.386270 0.678999 1.122512 1.822608
2025-06-08 0.035116 0.086890 0.185696 0.372441 0.696435 1.210499 2.054475
2025-06-15 0.027421 0.076227 0.177177 0.380218 0.750541 1.362082 2.400365
2025-06-22 0.018820 0.060257 0.154541 0.358254 0.751312 1.429750 2.624549
2025-06-29 0.013239 0.048970 0.138343 0.345253 0.766217 1.523167 2.901486
2025-07-06 0.009190 0.039651 0.123683 0.332224 0.779210 1.615365 3.187156
2025-07-13 0.006757 0.033985 0.116558 0.335292 0.827134 1.780686 3.624857
2025-07-20 0.004733 0.028258 0.107292 0.331512 0.861176 1.925940 4.044685
2025-07-27 0.003436 0.024309 0.101633 0.335438 0.913095 2.112682 4.560767
2025-08-03 0.002441 0.020725 0.095672 0.337319 0.961431 2.299174 5.096540
2025-08-10 0.001499 0.016101 0.083933 0.320152 0.962861 2.391851 5.464520
2025-08-17 0.000854 0.012080 0.071980 0.298525 0.949441 2.452293 5.776801
2025-08-24 0.000540 0.009854 0.065945 0.293437 0.977259 2.605405 6.290536
2025-08-31 0.000326 0.007919 0.059892 0.286370 0.998792 2.747655 6.796233
2025-09-07 0.000229 0.007050 0.058639 0.296038 1.068574 3.008230 7.573143
2025-09-14 0.000120 0.005364 0.051440 0.281051 1.065493 3.098959 7.996867
2025-09-21 0.000064 0.004231 0.046442 0.272780 1.080693 3.235328 8.532168